WSJ chimes in on the problem of aging condominiums, rising HOA dues
HOA Detective™ | April 10, 2026: The Wall Street Journal ran a piece this week outlining what many homeowners are now experiencing firsthand: surging HOA fees, rising special assessments, and a growing sense that the economics of condominium ownership are becoming untenable. The article highlights a nearly 30% increase in condo fees since 2019, alongside rising insurance, labor, and material costs. It frames the issue as part of a broader affordability crisis in American housing.
All of that is true, but it is not the whole story.
What the Journal describes as an emerging problem is a long-forecast structural inevitability. For those of us who have spent decades inside the machinery of common-interest developments, the current moment is not surprising – it is the logical outcome of a flawed model.
The HOA Detective™ began his career as a reserve study provider twenty years ago, at a pivotal moment in Portland’s condominium development boom, when he accepted a position with a prominent reserve study provider with a slate of high-profile projects that were under development in the city at the time. These were not marginal developments; they represented the cutting edge of Portland’s 21st-century, urban residential aspirations.
Knowing very little about reserve studies, but a lot about the cost of building and maintaining buildings in general, my role at this new job was largely focused on preparing replacement cost estimates for reserve studies the firm was producing, including many of the high-rise condominiums in Portland that are now ~20 years old.
Summer of 2006: Six months into the Detective’s newfound career, one of his long-standing opinions had been confirmed – an opinion he had been expressing to anyone who would listen for several years before 2006, which was:
Housing people in high-rise buildings is a bad idea!
Why, you ask? Because high-rise buildings are capital-intensive organisms. Most people don’t have the slightest idea how much it costs to operate or maintain a high-rise, much less how complicated and expensive the long-term renewal of a high-rise is going to be after it reaches 30 years old, or older. They rely on integrated systems – mechanical, electrical, plumbing, envelope, vertical transportation – that degrade over time and require not only maintenance, but eventual replacement.
These are not incremental costs. Often, they are interlocking expenditures that arrive in waves, often decades after initial construction, when the original developer has long since exited the picture. It often starts with the roof around year 20 in most instances, and continues from there.
The 20-year Tipping Point: This is why we call year 20 the “Tipping Point.” At the 20- to 25-year mark, the financial reality begins to assert itself. Major maintenance projects – facade repairs, waterproofing, mechanical overhauls – start to accumulate. If reserve funds are not accumulating in lock-step with the depreciating building assets, and instead have been underfunded for 20 years, the first-generation owners in these high-rise condominium buildings have a major problem on their hands.
The Result is Predictable: The rising monthly dues and the imposition of special assessments that are touched on in the WSJ article are only the beginning of a financial dynamic that, in extreme cases, has resulted in an increasing number of homeowners paying more in HOA fees than in principal and interest on their loans.
The WSJ article also acknowledges the role of insurance and regulatory changes, particularly in markets like Florida following the Surfside collapse; yet another calamity the HOA Detective, and his colleagues at CIDAnalytics first warned about after the Detective and his partner completed a lap around Florida in 2010, touring buildings along both coasts that were a depressing sight for sore eyes after many years of neglect, and constant exposure to the salty marine environment.
What the article does not fully address is the governance structure that sits at the center of the system. Homeowner associations are theoretically self-governing entities. In practice, they are often managed by professional firms and advised by a network of vendors whose incentives are not always aligned with long-term financial sustainability.
A Clear Pattern: Over the past twenty years, a pattern has emerged. Reserve studies are frequently treated as compliance documents rather than strategic planning tools. Funding recommendations may be softened to keep dues artificially low. Major capital projects can be deferred to avoid political friction within the Association. When the inevitable expenditures can no longer be postponed, they arrive at scale. Homeowners, many of whom were never fully underwritten to absorb these costs at the time of purchase, are left to absorb the impact.
This is where the WSJ narrative falls short. Rising costs alone do not explain the magnitude of the problem. Costs rise in every sector of the economy. What makes the condominium model uniquely vulnerable is the combination of high fixed capital requirements, diffuse ownership, and governance structures that struggle to enforce disciplined long-term planning.
In 2006, this was a forward-looking concern. In 2026, it is a brutal reality.
Water Seeks its Level: This old saying is a metaphor that applies to the situation of aging, attached to common interest housing developments, especially in the mid and high-rise building environment. If you do not fund for future expenditures, the future will arrive, and fund itself – on its own terms, and at a much higher cost.
Over the last 20 years, the Detective’s thesis – Housing people in high-rise buildings is a bad idea – has been expanded into the broader framework that now underpins CIDAnalytic’s CIDA REPORT™ analysis. Our goal has always been to move beyond surface-level metrics and examine the full lifecycle economics of shared ownership structures. What we are now seeing in the WSJ coverage is the early stage of a broader market recognition of what we have been saying for two decades.
As of 2026, U.S. condominiums – particularly high-rise condominiums – are entering a phase where the long-term maintenance is a liability that is more visible. When the market prices this liability into the resale formula, the liquidity of the organization responsible for paying for this maintenance becomes paramount.
The Market Pushes Back: Prospective buyers are increasingly sensitive to HOA dues, and are beginning to demand discounted prices that cut directly into the paper equity of sellers who are encountering resistance in markets where fees have escalated. Lenders and insurers are tightening standards. These are not isolated signals. They are indicators of a structural shift. This does not mean that all condominiums are not viable dwelling options.
Well-managed associations with adequately funded reserves and transparent governance can and do function effectively. But they are the exception rather than the rule. The broader market is now confronting a question that was posed, quietly, two decades ago by the HOA Detective™:
What is the true cost of owning and sustaining a high-rise condominium building over 50 or 60 years?
The WSJ calls it a “squeeze on affordability.”
The HOA Detective™ believes it is something more fundamental: a recalibration of reality.
Because You’re Buying more than a Home!
